Serbia (part of former Yugoslavia) is a landlocked country in south-eastern Europe. Serbia has warm-humid continental climate with cold relatively dry winters and warm humid summers. Due to the civil war of 1991-1999, the influence of climate change and other political and natural changes, there are many uncertainties concerning future land use change impacting the natural and socio-economical system of the country. To prepare for the future land use scenarios and their impacts are studied. Land use scenarios are a tool to integrate disciplinary knowledge, while at the same time bringing together information on climate change, political change, and environmental factors.
Objective
Produce scenarios of future change and their interpretation into land use maps of Serbia in 2050.
Participants
Serbian academia with a background in geography and land use
Setting
A desk-top study with statistical analysis, literature research and contact with a land use model expert.
Data
Land use data and GIS data of the possible drivers with a resolution of 250m * 250m. Drivers are preselected in Serbia. Examples of the drivers are topographical data, data on infrastructure, soil data, population densityd data. As baseline for the future land use the 2012 land use map was used. The following land use classes were distinguished: Built up area, inensive agriculture, permanent cultivation, complex small scale agriculture no forest, complex small scale agriculture with nature, natural vegetation, woodlands, bare lands, water related land use.
References
Houwman, M., 2018, Projecting future land use change in Serbia by analysing land use suitability, BSc thesis, Student#970421369060